Technical analyst warns on S&P failure to meet target | US dollar near inflection point, says technical analyst | Technical analyst charts Facebook's latest stutter
July 6, 2020
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Technical analyst Carolyn Boroden, who set a price target of 3,270 for the S&P 500, says its failure to hit that target now leaves it open to a sharp downturn. Market commentator Jim Cramer notes: "Boroden thinks you need to prepare for pain because the near future could get ugly."
Full Story: Business Insider (7/2) 
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The long-term progress of the US dollar is approaching a pivotal point which suggests the start of a new cycle that could see it continue to ascend or switch to a downtrend, says technical analyst Mensur Pocinci. A marked decline below its current levels against the euro and Swiss franc "would add to the evidence that the currency has seen a long-term peak," Pocinci asserts, while a breakout to the upside could be in view if it avoids the lows reached in Q1.
Full Story: Pound Sterling Live (6/29) 
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Technical Outlook
Technical analyst John Burford's review of Facebook's chart action prompts him to speculate that "the best days are behind it." Burford contends its recent high of $245 represented the culmination of a five-wave sequence, its erratic progress since then is likely to be further depressed by a spate of advertising boycotts, and it could fall farther to a low of $180 and beyond.
Full Story: Interactive Investor (UK) (6/29) 
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Industry News
Technical analyst Clive Maund's charts show gold is in an uptrend against several major currencies and while it has not yet made a consolidated break above the US dollar, Maund is confident it will do so. A cup and handle formation is developing on its chart, which implies a surge is imminent and Maund expects the impact of the Federal Reserve's ambitious interventions to falter significantly, adding more fuel to gold's rise.
Full Story: Streetwise Reports (6/29) 
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India's Nifty 50 and Sensex indexes have both achieved their best week's performance since March, buoyed in part by hopes on development of a coronavirus vaccine. Comments on near-term progress are broadly positive but, among them, technical analyst Vinod Nair deems the potential for further upside as limited and says "Investors are advised to watch out for any signs of trend reversal and keep booking short term profits."
Full Story: LiveMint (India) (7/5) 
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US economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is slower and more complex than the V-shaped recovery many expected, Mark Gongloff writes. Gongloff refers to economist Mohamed El-Erian, who asserts maintaining public safety while stimulating economic growth is a flawed concept.
Full Story: Bloomberg (tiered subscription model) (7/1) 
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The Federal Reserve's $600 billion Main Street Lending Program is off to a slow start, with some bankers saying they are still considering whether to participate. Bankers say companies in desperate need are unlikely to qualify, while stronger companies can get better terms elsewhere.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (7/1) 
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Technology and Data Visualization
Researchers are studying how cognitive biases influence investor behavior in hopes of using the findings to create better investment strategies that avoid mistakes and possibly develop new quant models.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (7/2) 
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Market Structure and Regulation
Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concern during a June meeting reopening the US economy too quickly could trigger coronavirus outbreaks and slow recovery, according to meeting minutes. No agreement was reached on how to provide further stimulus, but a need for further support was acknowledged, along with a need to make forward guidance more explicit.
Full Story: The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (7/1) 
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US regulators' failure to reduce risk to financial stability created by nonbanks is contributing to the latest crisis, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen say. The Financial Stability Oversight Council's ability to oversee insurers, hedge funds, money market mutual funds and other nonbanks has been curtailed, Brainard and Yellen say.
Full Story: MLex (free content) (6/30) 
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Association News
This paper is about financial manias -- economic events rather than market events. From reading financial market history as a technician, I noticed certain economic patterns seemed to precede financial manias. While financial manias were relatively infrequent and the preceding patterns not absolutely precise, as are most technical patterns, the recurrence of economic and political events was so consistent that it formed the basis for a technical theory of financial manias.

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The CMT is pleased to announce that a thorough review into the evolution, criticism, historical practice and modern applications of technical analysis was recently published by the CFA Institute Research Foundation in partnership with the CMT. The review discusses the evolution of technical analysis and how that evolution, in the tradition of other social science disciplines, has served to address many of the criticisms of the field.

View the Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives
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