Bank results top expectations in Q1 | Expectations of higher-for-longer rates wipe out bond gains | Borrowers swap $16B in direct-lender loans for banks
The Basel III endgame proposal's capital requirements, which the Federal Reserve had spearheaded, have damaged the Fed's reputation, says Randal Quarles, former vice chair for supervision at the central bank. The proposal risks turning the Fed into a "much more politicized agency," Quarles says. "This proposal clearly did not have broad support," says Quarles, who is scheduled to participate in the SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable on Thursday.
JPMorgan Chase reported a 6% increase in first-quarter earnings to $13.42 billion, while revenue rose 9% to $41.93 billion, ahead of expectations of $41.69 billion. Wells Fargo's profit also topped estimates, and revenue grew 1% to $20.9 billion, ahead of expectations of $20.2 billion. Citigroup's revenue came in at $21.1 billion, surpassing the expected $20.4 billion, but profit decreased 27% from a year ago to $3.37 billion. Separately, BlackRock's long-term investment funds saw $76 billion of net inflows, bringing total client assets to a record $10.5 trillion.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer have wiped out a 4.2% return earned on debt from last year. A Bloomberg gauge of government debt is down 4.7% since January, mainly because of expectations of fewer than two rate cuts this year.
Debt worth $16 billion has changed hands from private funds into markets for syndicated loans and bonds in 2024, according to Bank of America. Prices for leveraged loans have rallied, prompting companies to secure lower rates by switching to banks.
Over 80% of S&P 500 companies are in share repurchase blackout periods this week, Deutsche Bank said, up from under 5% a month ago. Buybacks have provided significant support to the stock market, but the blackout "could add to volatility to equities over the next month since there isn't a key source of consistent buying from corporates," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management.
Banks are starting to break into carbon credit markets, turning their attention to secondary transactions as well as the projects generating credits. Carbon credit markets have struggled to gain the traction they need, but it's estimated the market could grow from $500 million currently in annual issuance to $250 billion a year by 2030 and over $1.5 trillion by 2050.
The US has proposed the Group of Seven raise billions of euros in debt for Ukraine by unlocking frozen Russian assets by bringing forward the "present value of the future interest stream of the immobilized assets, either through a bond or a loan," says Daleep Singh, US deputy national security adviser for international economics. The proposal, which EU countries fear could breach international law and cause volatility in financial markets, is expected to be discussed by G7 finance ministers during next week's World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington, D.C.
Japanese firms are paying higher premiums on corporate bonds following the Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative interest-rate regime. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has reiterated that authorities remain willing to step in to support the yen, which has slumped to a 34-year low against the dollar.
The UK's GDP expanded by 0.1% month-on-month in February as the country remains on track to move out of recession. The Office for National Statistics also revised January's reading to 0.3% from 0.2%. However, GDP remains below the level it was in June 2023 and has stayed flat since early 2022.
Foreign investors looking to buy into Indian debt are turning to offshore swaps to overcome the country's investment regulations. Much of the $9.3 billion in net inflows into Indian bonds is expected to have come from offshore derivatives, said Parul Mittal Sinha, India head of financial markets at Standard Chartered Bank.
Investors are turning away from Treasurys following a sharp sell-off last week. A sale of 30-year bonds saw sluggish demand on Thursday, even though it was offering one of the highest auction yields of the past 10 years at 4.671%.
Hotter-than-expected inflation data in the US has made markets less clear on when central banks will begin to cut rates. As it stands, trading suggests Switzerland, Sweden and the European Central Bank could cut rates in June and Canada in July. The UK, New Zealand and the US are not expected to cut rates before August.
UCITS held a record $433 billion at the start of 2018, but the industry has since fallen out of favor. Driven partly by poor performance, the industry lost $38 billion last year, bringing total assets down to $240 billion. The funds saw an improvement in their performance last year, but average returns still fell below the 5% interest rate available at a bank.
Join SIFMA's Compliance & Legal Society on Tuesday, June 4, for our Regional Seminar in St. Louis. C&L Regional Seminars gather compliance and legal professionals working in the financial-services industry to share best practices, informative content and focused networking opportunities in the increasingly complex and changing regulatory and compliance arenas. Early bird rates available through May 6!
Recently, the Futures Industry Association (FIA) and the SIFMA Asset Management Group (AMG) hosted their annual Asset Management Derivatives Forum. The forum presents a unique opportunity for institutional investors to connect with their market counterparts -- brokers, exchanges and technology providers -- and share their perspectives on current trends, identify issues of common concern and discuss best practices. This note, published jointly by SIFMA Insights and FIA, recaps some of the main themes of the Forum, including sections on innovation and growth, artificial intelligence, operational efficiency and more.