Global stock market concentration highest in decades | BOJ's Ueda's focus shifts to next moves amid weak yen | Market expectations shift on Fed rate cuts
09 April 2024
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Morning Bell
The 10 biggest stocks in the MSCI World Index, which are all American companies, now account for 21.7% of the index's total market capitalization. The dominance of a handful of stocks has brought global market concentration to the highest levels in decades, which could increase risks for passive index investors.
Full Story: Financial Times (08 Apr.) 
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Industry News
As Kazuo Ueda marks one year as Governor of the Bank of Japan, he's credited with skillfully ending one of the boldest monetary stimulus programs without market upheaval, shifting focus to potential interest rate hikes. Ueda's tenure thus far has seen a significant shift from his predecessor's policies, raising expectations for his strategy on managing the BOJ's massive balance sheet and addressing challenges like the weak yen.
Full Story: Bloomberg (08 Apr.) 
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Traders are adjusting their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, now predicting just two quarter-point reductions, down from the previously anticipated three. This shift follows resilient US economic data and Federal Reserve officials' signals against the need for immediate easing, setting the stage for a pivotal response to upcoming inflation reports.
Full Story: Bloomberg (08 Apr.) 
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The possibility of the euro reaching parity with the dollar is gaining attention as the European Central Bank is anticipated to implement more interest rate cuts than the Federal Reserve, potentially weakening the euro. While no strategist currently predicts a one-to-one exchange rate as their primary scenario, concerns about euro depreciation have risen amid different economic trajectories in the US and Europe, and speculation about future policy decisions by both central banks.
Full Story: Bloomberg (09 Apr.) 
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Tradeweb has reached a deal to acquire Institutional Cash Distributors, a technology provider focused on institutions trading short-term investments, for $785 million. The cash deal is expected to close in the second half of 2024.
Full Story: The Trade (UK) (08 Apr.) 
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Signs are emerging that liquidity is returning to Japan's bond market as the Bank of Japan shifts away from its yield control measures. The average bid-ask spread on Japanese government debt has tightened to the narrowest in at least six months. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank market strategist Ayako Sera says the BOJ "has to walk a fine line between improving market liquidity and not causing unnecessary confusion" by cutting debt purchases too drastically.
Full Story: Bloomberg (08 Apr.) 
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Manulife Investment Management's acquisition of alternative credit manager CQS has been completed. The move will help Manulife expand its fixed-income offering, with President and CEO Paul Lorentz calling the deal a "tremendous opportunity to serve retail, retirement and institutional investors more deeply and unlock growth for our clients."
Full Story: The Trade (UK) (05 Apr.) 
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Regulatory Roundup
The development of a digital pound would help the Bank of England maintain public confidence in the monetary system, Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden said, adding that it is "crucial for us to be vigilant to preserve the share of central bank money settlement." "If the emergence of new private settlement assets -- stablecoins or new forms of commercial bank money in the form of tokenized deposits -- if they move settlement away from settlement in central bank money, that could increase pockets of financial stability risk," Breeden said.
Full Story: Bloomberg (08 Apr.) 
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The rapid growth of the $2.1 trillion private credit market could pose risks to broader market stability, the International Monetary Fund said, citing infrequent valuations and questions over credit quality among the chief risk factors. "[T]he migration of this lending from regulated banks and more transparent public markets to the more opaque world of private credit creates potential risks," IMF analysts wrote in a blog post.
Full Story: Pensions & Investments (free access for SmartBrief readers) (08 Apr.) 
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Spotlight on China
UBS is reportedly discussing a deal to swap its stake in Credit Suisse's Chinese securities venture for full ownership of its own Chinese platform, negotiating with a Beijing government investment fund. The bank is seeking around $278 million for its holding in the unit, sources say.
Full Story: Bloomberg (08 Apr.) 
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